The death of the college degree has been announced regularly for about fifteen years. The degree has not died. What is actually happening is a repricing — a differentiation between credentials that carry labor market value and credentials that do not — and the process is messy, slow, and producing real harm in the middle.
At the top of the distribution, elite university degrees have if anything increased in scarcity value and signaling function. A degree from a handful of highly selective institutions remains one of the most durable social sorting mechanisms in the American economy. Employers use it, professional networks reinforce it, and the credential commands premium compensation across almost every field. That tier is not repricing downward.
At the bottom of the distribution, the associate degree and the lower-ranked bachelor’s degree in non-vocational fields have struggled to justify their cost for a decade. The combination of high tuition, high debt loads, and modest wage premiums has produced a genuine return-on-investment problem that the market is now pricing in. Enrollment at this tier has declined, and employer willingness to hire without degree requirements in certain roles has increased. This is the repricing that most commentary is capturing.
The middle — regional universities, state flagships, vocational bachelor’s programs in fields like nursing, accounting, and engineering technology — remains largely functional as a value proposition, though it is under pressure on price and completion rates.
The narrative that degrees are broadly losing value obscures a more specific story: some degrees at some institutions for some fields were never worth what they cost, and the market is belatedly recognizing that. The degree is not dead. The undifferentiated credential is.